Pillar One
Clean Energy
Pillar one status:
Yellow trending green
In the coming years, construction of unprecedented amounts
of clean energy resources will be needed to meet state
decarbonization goals while serving significantly increased demand.
A Rapidly Evolving Grid
New England’s clean energy transition has been underway for years, and it is accelerating. The ISO expects to see dramatic changes to the region’s power system in the decades ahead, amid a radical transformation in how we consume and produce electricity.
The installed capacity of distributed solar resources is projected to double over the next 10 years from the amount available today—and even more growth will happen through the end of the next decade. Major offshore wind facilities producing thousands of megawatts of electricity are expected to come on line. The region will see a substantial increase in its total number of energy resources, requiring significant investment in the transmission system to carry electricity to homes and businesses.
The Grid is Changing
| Today’s Grid | The 2040 Grid |
|---|---|
| Nearly 400 dispatchable generators | Potential for more than 1 million nondispatchable, weather-dependent generators |
| More than 6,000 MW of solar power, with most installations connected “behind the meter” | An additional 28,000 MW of solar power |
| More than 1,400 MW of wind power | An additional 17,000 MW of offshore wind |
Other data points show continued change.
Solar and wind generation, energy storage, and demand resources have accounted for more than 15% of all capacity clearing in each of the last three Forward Capacity Auctions.
Clean generation and energy storage projects dominate the list of resources seeking connection to the grid. While not all projects in the queue are ultimately built, this mix of resources represents a dramatic shift in recent years in the types of projects developers are proposing.
Resources in the ISO Interconnection Queue
Just seven years ago, power plants fueled by natural gas represented nearly half the capacity of proposals in the ISO Interconnection Request Queue. Today, wind and solar generation and storage (primarily short-duration batteries) account for more than 99%. Meanwhile, the number of requests in the queue has grown by about 80% in that time.
39,861 MW
Source: ISO New England Interconnection Request Queue, January 2024
Public policy drives decarbonization
State goals and requirements are targeting deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as increases in renewable energy. These public policies represent the power system’s largest catalyst for change.
Electrifying the heating and transportation sectors, to reduce emissions from buildings and vehicles that have historically burned fossil fuels, will result in a significant increase in electricity demand. Massive amounts of clean, reliable power must be available to meet it.
Over the next 15 years, the region needs to add almost twice as much new generation as it added in the last 25 years. By the early 2030s, the annual energy needed to heat buildings and charge electric vehicles is expected to grow to about 20 times the forecast for 2024. The growth over the next decade is just the beginning.
Significant Demand Growth as System Peak Shifts to Winter
The transition to electric heat and vehicles will drive significant demand growth over the next quarter century.
All-Time
System Peak
28.1 GW
Aug 2, 2006
All-Time
Winter Peak
22.8 GW
Jan 15, 2004
Source: Massachusetts Energy Pathways to Deep Decarbonization study and ISO New England 2050 Transmission Study
Gigawatts (GW)
Vision in action
Public policy is dramatically reshaping the mix of resources that deliver the power New Englanders count on every minute of every day. Maintaining a reliable, cost-effective power system throughout this transition is at the core of the ISO’s work now and in the years to come. Projects underway will support this goal, and will also build on trends that have already seen regional power sector CO2 emissions fall about 40% in this century’s first two decades.
- The Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition (EPCET) pilot study is preparing our models, tools, and processes for future economic studies, to aid in producing informative, actionable results. In the forward-looking EPCET scenarios, which build on the work of the Future Grid Reliability Study, the ISO is working to identify trends and challenges that may materialize as the region transitions to clean energy. The study’s near-term modeling explores issues such as fuel security and the need for flexibility to manage minimum load conditions. Longer-range analyses focus on trends relating to public policy, including the cost of deep decarbonization and the need for dispatchable generation to complement intermittent resources. A stakeholder-requested scenario investigates revenue adequacy in the future power system.
- The ISO has enabled thousands of megawatts of distributed energy resources, such as behind-the-meter solar, to participate in the wholesale electricity markets. The implementation of FERC Order No. 2222 will reduce barriers and accommodate even more of these resources.
- Enhanced market structures that account for a resource mix with different operating characteristics involve a slate of work. Some of these projects are discussed in the next section.
- Investments in long-term forecasting have improved our capabilities in estimating growth in production from solar resources and increases in demand due to electrification. Improvements to our shorter-term forecasting tools are setting the stage to reliably operate a grid largely powered by weather-dependent resources.
ISO New England has a successful track record of integrating regional policy objectives into system operations, planning, and the wholesale markets. We remain committed to working with the states and our stakeholders to ensure a successful, reliable clean energy transition.