Since 1993, ISO New England has produced an annual report on generator air emissions—a comprehensive analysis of the emissions produced by the region’s generation fleet and a review of relevant system conditions.
Significant Long-Term Reductions
Air emissions from regional generators have fallen dramatically over the last two decades. From 2001 to 2019, annual emissions for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and carbon dioxide (CO2) declined by 99%, 78%, and 42%, respectively.
99%, 78%, and 42% decrease in annual regional emissions between 2001 and 2019 for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and carbon dioxide (CO2), respectively
60% decrease in coal-fired generation, between 2018 and 2019
69% decline in oil-fired generation from 2018 to 2019
13% increase in production from solar and wind resources, combined, between 2018 and 2019
The table below summarizes both long-term and year-over-year changes for total system emissions (the amount of system emissions) and emission rates (the pounds of emissions given off, on average, with every megawatt-hour of electricity produced). This is akin to comparing how many gallons of gasoline a car used versus its miles per gallon (MPG).
Transmission—Improving weak spots and eliminating bottlenecks on the transmission system has allowed these new efficient, low-emitting generators to interconnect to the grid, run more often, and displace older, less efficient resources.
Tighter emissions controls—Implementation of emission controls, as required by federal regulations and stringent, leading-edge requirements set by the New England states, have helped reduce emission levels from coal-fired resources when they do run, contributing to the striking long-term decrease in SO2, in particular.
Renewables—The region’s increasing development of wind, solar, and other zero-emission resources will further contribute to reducing greenhouse gases.
Imported electricity—Since 2004, lower-priced electricity from outside New England has increasingly flowed in to serve regional demand, much of it from Canadian hydropower. This external generation doesn’t count toward regional air emissions.
Less demand—Since about 2005, annual demand for wholesale electricity from the regional power system has been declining, and with it, so has electricity generation. The Great Recession of the late 2000s and slow recovery helped dampen electricity consumption. Several long-term factors have also been at work to reduce the amount of power consumers pull from the grid, such as:
Energy-efficiency (EE) investment—The New England states are investing more than $1billion annually and are national leaders in implementing EE measures, such as the use of more efficient lighting, appliances, cooling, and building operation.
Active demand resources—These power resources compete in the wholesale electricity markets by reducing the amount of power they’d normally pull from the grid, using practices like powering down machines or switching to an on-site generator.
Distributed generation—The growing numbers of small-scale solar power systems are one example of how more and more New Englanders are supplying some or all of their own power.
Two overarching factors are largely responsible for year-over-year changes in emissions:
The weather—Electricity demand is driven primarily by weather. Higher demand requires more electricity generation, which typically results in more emissions. Because of this, comparing annual cooling and heating degree days can provide some perspective. In 2019, there were 325 cooling degree days, which is 1.3% lower than the 20-year average. There were 6,046 heating degree days, which is 0.5% higher than the 20-year average. In other words, summer was cooler than average and winter was slightly colder. Overall, total energy generation declined by 5.6% from 2018 to 2019.
Degree days are calculated by comparing a day’s mean temperature to the base point of 65°F. Each degree above 65°F is counted as one cooling degree day, while each degree below is one heating degree day. A day’s mean temperature of 90°F, for example, equals 25 cooling degree days, while a mean temperature of 45°F equals 20 heating degree days.
Power plant availability—New England’s power plant air emissions are also related to the specific units available and dispatched to serve electricity demand. The region’s higher-emitting generators tend to be dispatched when the weather drives up demand on very hot, humid summer days or when wintertime cold snaps lead to constraints on the interstate natural gas pipelines, which cause natural-gas-fired generation to become expensive or unavailable.
Increasing amounts of installed wind power and other renewable power resources also play a role in seasonal emissions trends. In 2019, annual energy produced by non-emitting sources, such as nuclear, solar and wind generation, grew by 9%. However, hydroelectric and wind generation exhibit seasonal differences in their output due to “fuel” availability—there’s less rain and onshore wind during the summer months. In winter, solar power doesn’t help meet the peak, which happens after sunset, and cannot produce power during cloudy conditions and during or soon after snowfall. Additionally, most regional solar power serves to reduce—not serve—electricity demand because it’s not connected to the regional transmission system.
Factors that Could Erode Emissions Reductions Going Forward
Some emerging factors could push the ISO to rely more on higher-emitting, less efficient resources to meet regional electricity demand:
Siting challenges are causing delays in building some of the region’s new power resources, particularly those running on natural gas.
New transmission lines needed to maintain reliability, as well as elective transmission projects that can connect to clean-energy resources, are also often met with opposition.
Some states are tightening emission limits for all generators—even state-of-the-art units running on relatively low-emitting natural gas. This could force the ISO to run higher-emitting generators in other parts of the region.
Any additional closures of regional nuclear facilities will remove major sources of zero-emission energy for New England.