New England is expected to have sufficient resources to meet consumer demand for electricity this winter if the weather is mild. But a severe, prolonged cold snap could necessitate emergency actions if power-producing resources lack access to the fuel they need to operate.
A number of uncertainties could affect how ISO New England will operate the region’s power system this winter. Three of these variables include weather severity; the availability of fuels used to produce electricity, such as oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), which could affect storage and deliveries into New England; and natural gas pipeline constraints. The ISO will turn to several operating procedures to manage the grid if these risks materialize and threaten power system reliability, up to and including controlled power outages.
ISO New England routinely monitors weather forecasts and fuel supplies as a part of its winter operations, and has established procedures and communications protocols to alert the public.
For the past two decades, ISO New England has raised concerns about fuel supply issues and their impact on electricity supply during periods of extreme cold weather. Constraints on the natural gas pipeline system limit the availability of fuel for natural gas-fired power plants, as heating customers are served first through firm service contracts.
Over the years, the New England states, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and the ISO have pursued actions to address regional energy adequacy, but most of these major steps to solve this risk have been unsuccessful. The ISO does not have the authority to require generators to procure fuel in advance, though resources paid through the Forward Capacity Market to be available during periods of system stress face significant financial penalties if they do not meet their commitments.
To enhance situational awareness entering this winter, the ISO compared expected consumer demand levels and other system conditions for this winter with three historical weather scenarios:
The analysis assumed there were no significant generation or transmission outages, and that fuel replenishment was limited.
Under this analysis, the ISO would anticipate reliable system operations without the need for emergency procedures with mild conditions similar to last year. Weather similar to 2017/2018 may require limited emergency procedures, while weather similar to 2013/2014 may require the implementation of all available emergency procedures. The ISO would not expect these actions to be necessary if generators are able to adequately replenish their fuel supplies and if the system does not experience any unexpected generator or transmission outages.
ISO New England prepares short-term forecasts for the summer and winter seasons, taking into account estimated contributions from all resources, including those with and without an obligation through the capacity market to supply electricity; unplanned resource outages; imports from neighboring regions; and resource additions and retirements. These estimates help inform ISO New England’s planning on how to operate the grid during the upcoming peak season.
ISO New England has well-established operating procedures to maintain a reliable supply of electricity in the event of an unexpected power plant or transmission line outage, an extended heat wave that results in increased consumer demand, fuel supply issues or emissions limitations that affect the amount of electric generation available, or a combination of these factors. These procedures include importing emergency power from neighboring regions, calling on power system reserves, and asking businesses and residents to voluntarily conserve energy.
